Manolo Quezon is #TheExplainer Newsletter — Issue #13
You might remember the political calendar I included in my June 21 Newsletter. The recent headlines all bear out the political time we’re in. July starts tomorrow and the President will be widely expected, in his final State of the Nation Address, to not only lay out his achievements, but address whether he will be a candidate, or whether he is prepared to anoint a successor, or both. Last Monday’s newsletter laid out my initial thoughts on the political repercussions of the passing of Benigno S. Aquino III. Since then, the President’s party has resumed its efforts to expel Senator Pacquiao. Some among the public are skeptical, but it seems to me a real (and necessary) fight.
So from the cozy picture above and until not so long ago, the political slugfest is on. I explored this situation further in my column today.
Today’s The Long View
‘Obosen’ | Inquirer Opinion — opinion.inquirer.net
THE LONG VIEW
‘Obosen’
By: Manuel L. Quezon III — @inquirerdotnet
Philippine Daily Inquirer / 04:06 AM June 30, 2021
It is easier for columnists, academics, analysts, and commentators in general, to go in the direction of wherever they feel the tide of public opinion is going. All the better to tailor-fit their opinions and conclusions to the public in its momentary prejudices rather than actually do original thinking. This is why, in the case of Benigno S. Aquino III, they could instantly pivot their opinions with his passing. They only have to do today what they did yesterday, which was reflect public opinion back to the public itself.
Not so, and this may come as counterintuitive to many, for the politicians. The death of the former president, everyone feels, will have an impact on the outcome of 2022. But no one knows how. For the radicals, the itch to contribute an avalanche of sloganeering and ritual tract-thumping was irresistible, reversing recent efforts to paper over the past in order to pursue a united front.
As for whatever is left counting itself, over the past five years, as an opposition, the fact that it was the breakup of the former president’s coalition that allowed a minority take over of the country overshadows whatever genuine regret may be felt in certain quarters. Besides which, the embarrassment and even outright rejection some quarters felt while the former president was still alive, has been too obvious and remains too fresh in the memory of the public for its practitioners to derive any benefits from his passing.
For the ruling coalition, they were girding for battle thinking there would remain, in lonely internal exile in Times Street, a convenient straw man to rhetorically prop up and then knock down, in order to score easy political points with their followers. The administration coalition was in the middle of the more urgent process of candidate control through cannibalism (rigging a fight in the PDP-Laban where he could be TKO’d and carried away in a stretcher, with lawsuits to ensure political euthanasia), when the former president inconveniently died. The parable of the prodigal son played out over three days, a nation that had viewed him with disdain taking its dead son into its arms one last time; and all the ruling coalition could do was insinuate that the former president died of neglect: as if diabetes, and kidney problems, aren’t such familiar curses many instinctively understood what the man went through.
The President may have gotten himself together too late to be seen personally condoling with the relatives of the deceased, but he could do what his supporters couldn’t — reclaim center stage. This he did in the way that has always served him best: by doubling-down. So he went where he feels safest, Camp Crame, to talk to those to whom he is closest, vigilantes and police, to reiterate what he holds dearest: the idea, as friend and foe alike, taken up as a refrain at the start of his presidency and which will become the slogan of his campaign to succeed himself: “Obosen.” The pandemic means “a comfortable life for all,” a chicken in every pot and a car in every garage is a receding dream; but you can be given a gun, which provides its own cold comfort.
The papers say the President’s pet scheme to arm volunteers is merely a trial balloon, because the Palace has “clarified” that is so, and legislators say so, too; but he has spoken and every cop can take it as license to rope in convenient “volunteers” and a force committed to regime retention now has a civilian force multiplier going into an election.
We forget there was once a showdown in the ruling coalition, between the radical wing represented by Leoncio Evasco Jr., who, as secretary to the Cabinet, wanted to create a mass ideological movement, and infiltrate, reorganize, and radicalize the bureaucracy, to create a self-perpetuating ruling party. It was opposed by pragmatists represented by Christopher Go who, as special assistant and head of the Presidential Management Staff, was insistent on each faction keeping their current perks and future options open. The radicals lost but the pragmatists today confront the problem every previous ruling coalition has faced, which is its authority and influence has a fixed expiration date, now nearing. The President’s daughter (being courted for the purposes of a tandem by Gilbert Teodoro) says she will not run with her father; the father (the President) says he would be willing to run with Ferdinand Martin Romualdez, who has to tiptoe around Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr. All are waiting if Gloria Macapagal Arroyo can deliver an undivided Mindanao by eliminating Emmanuel Pacquiao.
A word on Evasco and Go and what it means
The story of Evasco versus Go was one I traced over the span of years. In The Little President (December 14, 2016) I outlined the balance of forces between the two; in Go, grow and Glo (September 27, 2017) I outlined the lack of progress in Evasco’s ambitious three-pronged plan; in All roads lead to the status quo (February 13, 2019) I outlined how the victory of the Go faction fomented continuing intramurals; and as for the limits on self-perpetuation, they began to be forseeable in Today began yesterday (May 15, 2019) followed by An embarrassment of riches (May 22, 2019) which took a closer look at the midterm victory of the President’s coalition.
In recent days it seems the President is continuing to float the idea of running, all the better to gauge public opinion.
The order of business remains keeping proxies viable: Go is useful because no one would believe him capable of overshadowing, vetoing, or acting in any way, shape or form, independently of the President.
The Daughter Bides Her Time
This still leaves Plan B or C or D, depending how you look at it: running the President’s daughter in tandem or independently of, the President. The article below summarizes where she is, in trial ballooning her candidacy.
Duterte wanted daughter Sara to run for president; she refused: Palace spox | ABS-CBN News — news.abs-cbn.com
On Monday, Duterte-Carpio said she has yet to decide on call of Hugpong ng Pagbabago, the party she leads, for her to run as president next year.
HNP, the regional political party she formed in 2018, extended until July the deadline it gave her for her to finalize her decision, she had said.
“Sige lang, may 31 days naman ang July,” Duterte-Carpio said in her weekly radio program aired over Davao City Disaster Radio.
(That’s fine. There are 31 days in July.)
The Davao City mayor thanked her supporters, who convinced her to follow the footsteps of her father as Ituloy ang Pagbabago Movement (IPM) launched their campaign in Luzon over the weekend.
“Magpasalamat ko sa tanan nga suporta, and trust and confidence sa mga tao nga nag-form sa IPM,” she said.
(I thank the support, trust and confidence of those who formed the IPM.)
Responding to a statement of Chief Presidential Legal Counsel Salvador Panelo that she will not run for president if her father seeks the vice presidency in the 2022 elections, Duterte-Carpio said, “Dili tanan nga makita ninyo or mabasa ninyo sa newspaper, sa social media, or madungog ninyo sa usa ka tawo is the truth.”
(Not all that you see or read in newspapers, on social media, or hear from one person is the truth.)
“Dapat siguro, kung ingon ana, kung naa mo’y madunggan nga claims, i-verify usa ninyo from other sources kung tinuod ba na siya o dili, so that ma-substantiate ang iyang claim as true or not,” she added.
(In such a case as that, if you hear some claims, you should verify with other sources whether it’s true or not, so that the claim can be substantiated as either true or not.)
Duterte-Carpio said she thinks that her father will not get a female running-mate if he runs as vice president in the upcoming elections.
“I do not think kung mudagan si PRD, mokuha na siya og babae nga running-mate,” she said.
In January, Duterte-Carpio told her political supporters to wait until 2034.
Round One… Fight!
The President issued a challenge, and Senator Pacquiao accepted it. Even as the President’s party was slowly but surely moving to oust Pacquiao. If this wasn’t confusing enough, the President and his daughter have also been a slow burn falling out, with her saying she wouldn’t run if he also ran, and his saying he’d once wanted her to run, but now she was uninterested in running…
I’m not convinced the fight with Pacquiao is staged, in the sense they were out to oust him and the ante was raised by the President because it’s taking longer than it should. The effort to deflect attention was the President saying he wants to arm volunteers.
Additional Viewings and Readings
I’d introduced some of the themes for my Monday newsletter in an appearance on CNN Philippines, you can watch it by clicking below.
China Has Lost the Philippines Despite Duterte’s Best Efforts | RAND — www.rand.org
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has time and again underscored his anti-U.S. and pro-Chinese orientation. Duterte now recognizes, in spite of his continued rhetoric to the contrary, that China is no friend.
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