Manolo Quezon is #TheExplainer Newsletter — Issue #37 (Electoral Merry Go Round Update)
Just as I released my previous newsletter, this survey came out. It is significant, it provides a snapshot after months of jockeying by the aspiring candidates-to-be, to form coalitions, raise awareness, and raise funds, before the October deadline for filing candidacies. Then the President, claiming to be listening to public opinion which overwhelmingly disapproves of his run for the vice presidency, announced he was giving up his vice-presidential bid. Bong Go filed his candidacy for vice-president instead. The President has made noises about his daughter ought to be running for the presidency but she filed her candidacy for the mayoralty instead.
This is the dilemma of the administration. The President as we know, took a two-digit hit in the surveys last June; the trajectory of Daughterte is steep down just when the campaign’s beginning after two months of “consciousness raising.” BBM going up. Is he their alternative?
Others have pointed out, Daughterte was at 28% in June, by September she was down to 20%. John Nery thinks she peaked June vs. Sept: Class E, from 62% to 47%; Minda: 62% to 47%, Vis. 30% to 23%, MM: 16% to 12%. Her Luzon numbers in particular are cause for concern because this is the vote-rich area; in contrast to her, BBM is strong in these areas.
Another observer pointed out Duaghterte fell to fourth in terms of being second choice for president (her dad was top second choice pick; as candidates dropped he scooped up their supporters in 2016).
The other contenders, Yorme, Leni, Pacman, can remain optimistic they have a fighting chance with the situation being like this near the starting gate. The president’s taking a hit and his daughter, too, shakes things up across the board. To some, this makes BBM the logical administration choice. Their dilemma becomes, can they trust BBM?
Daughterte and BBM essentially represent the same constituency; were both to run ,they could, in theory, split their constituency’s votes.
I. the Presidency
II. The Vice-presidency
III. The Senate
IV. Other factors
Anecdotally, huge interest in registering to vote; per a June survey question, the potential for a huge dip in actual voters, depending on the pandemic situation.
