Manolo Quezon is #TheExplainer Newsletter — Issue #9 (Monday is Electoral Merry-Go-Round Day!)
This Monday’s Electoral Merry-Go-Round looks at the electoral calendar going on, plus zeroes in on one week in political time. And by taking a cue from Randy David, we get to look at framing for the coming contest(s).
The political calendar
A couple of weeks ago in some Twitter conversations I put forward the schedule political observers have been pointing out, as explaining what we’re seeing, on the part of candidates, both declared and mulling over declaring. If we’re aware of the dynamics at play because of this schedule, a lot of what we’re observing will make sense.
Pre-campaign
May 31, 2021 Last day for filing of Registration of Parties/Coalitions
June, 2021 Initial benchmarking surveys (viability)
July, 2021 Last SONA of incumbent president (anointing)
June-October, 2021 “Consciousness-raising” activities to raise awareness of and excitement/interest/support for potential candidates; selection of standard-bearers (formation of new coalitions)
October 1–8, 2021 Filing of candidacy
Campaign
Feb. 8-May 7, 2022 official campaign period (National)
March 25-May, 2022 official campaign period (Local)
March 25-May 8, 2022 Ban on appointments (creating/filling positions) and public works
Elections
April 10-May 9, 2022 Voting overseas
April 27–29, 2022 Absentee voting period
May 9, 2022 Election Day
June 8, 2022 Submission of statements of contributions and expenditures
Campaign checklist
[ ] political party (for pollwatchers/copies of cert. of canvass)
[ ] Comms: strategist/pollster/SocMed/writer(s)/Spox/Advertising
[ ] Fund(ing/ers)
[ ] Logistics: local (sorties)/HQ/allies
[ ] Legal (incl. opposition research)
[ ] Security
Electoral Merry-Go-Round
The Duterte-Marcos-Arroyo-Romualdez Axis
As with most things, the next two pictures you’re about to see, circulated privately in online chat group apps before being featured in the media. Based on the above, you can see why this is the season to be putting forward names — to see if they will sink or swim — and taking others down — -limit their room for maneuver.
My own recollection is that the Imee Marcos photo circulated first, followed by the Ferdinand Marcos Jr. photo. Although, as it turned out, the Ferdinand Jr. event preceded that of Imee.
“Ex-President Gloria Arroyo meets with Bong Bong Marcos, who is reportedly again running for a national post in 2022 polls; House Majority Leader Martin Romualdez (current head of Lakas-CMD party) says their meeting took place last June 14 at Arroyo’s house” (Philippine Star)
Note two ex-Speakers, Arroyo and Romualdez, with Arroyo widely expected to go out of (her extremely temporary) retirement and run for the House of Representatives again. And while Arroyo left her former administration party, Lakas, to form Kampi, only to leave it to join PDP-Laban and wrest the speakership away from Pantaleon Alvarez, she continues to have many former lieutenants in her old party, Lakas-CMD. Romualdez for his part does the heavy lifting in the House, as Majority Leader.
“Senator Imee Marcos met Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte again this week [June 15], barely three weeks after they saw each other in the Dutertes’ bailiwick.” (Politiko, June 17)
Then again, the Imee-Sara shindig was a follow-up to an earlier one; and in the end, it became very clear they were all tied together. Ultimately, the message is a strong one: the main factions of the ruling coalition are holding together, and with it, the reputation not only of an immense war chest (the Marcoses) but the fanatical following of the President (presumably, this includes the power of his endorsement), and a geographical bailiwick for the allies: the “Solid North” for the Marcoses, parts of the Visayas for the Romualdezes, Davao for the President’s family (especially if it remains undivided with Pacquiao unable/unwilling to run), and Pampanga for the Arroyos.
The continuing problem of finding a viable tandem for the administration means eliminating the non-fully-controllable while floating as many names as possible to see which ones take off.
It was the President himself who got the ball rolling as far the public was concerned:
Followed by a loyal, humble, response by Romualdez.
One step ahead of eviction
There’s the continuing story of the slow-motion effort to neutralize Manny Pacquiao by either humiliating him so his bankability as a presidential contender suffers a fatal blow, or to deny him his current party, the PDP-Laban, as an electoral vehicle. Leading that effort are relative newcomers to the party (but then again, so is Pacquiao), known political lieutenants of former President (and ex-Speaker) Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.
If Pacquiao and friends are already classified as refugees from the PDP-Laban, the Marcos-Arroyo-Romualdez meetings suggest that there’s going to be a “No Vacancy” sign in Lakas-CMD, either.
Months earlier, one of the earliest signs of a brewing Pacquiao campaign was an interview given by San Miguel Corporation CEO Ramon Ang, who said Pacquiao would win if he ran for president. Ang of course calls the shots in the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC), which began as a breakaway faction led by Eduardo Cojuangco Jr., from the old Nacionalista Party (NP) hence the name (NPC). So if Pacquiao and friends are looking for a party, the NPC seems like a good bet.
Recycling is Good for the Political Environment
An interesting Sunday article by Randy David (I will be quoting from it in my forthcoming podcasts on party conventions and the convenors’ scheme for selecting candidates). I’ve included the relevant portions for today’s newsletter, below:
The opposition’s dilemma | Inquirer Opinion — opinion.inquirer.net
Dutertismo is primarily defined by its open disregard of a society’s institutional guardrails, especially of the checks to executive prerogative. It is impulsive, relying mostly on gut feel, and has no patience for careful study of crucial questions. Its gauge of policy effectiveness is the shock value it creates and the fear it induces in its intended targets. It has no need for periodic assessment of policy outcomes. It is more concerned with impression management than on the production of enduring social change. It does not hide its preference for direct authoritarian means over the slow deliberative procedures of a democratic system.
This style of decision-making should have long gone out of fashion in the modern world. It is mostly associated with traditional patriarchal societies. That it has made a comeback even in developed countries attests to the growing need of voters in the era of globalization to simplify political choices in favor of drastic solutions to old and new problems…
Elections in our country have seldom been driven solely by issues. In fact, they have mostly been about personalities and what they represent in terms of the things that are valued. That is why our presidential debates have rewarded not those who offer the clearest answers to policy questions, but those who present themselves in a manner that creates the desired impressions.
What are some of the images that are highly valued in our present political culture? Foremost of these are the following: Authenticity — you confess your weaknesses, you don’t pretend to be what you are not; Compassion — you treat the suffering of the many as your own and promise to avenge them; Boldness — you do not hesitate to offend the powerful, the rich, and the respectable; Decisiveness — you act swiftly and demand quick results, even if it means having to cut corners and defy the law. These are at the heart of today’s populism.
This kind of culture puts a premium on personal projection rather than on governmental performance…
This, next, opinion provides a useful corollary to David’s ideas:
Taking a cue from both of the above, it’s well and good to see how potential candidates are framing themselves as they attempt to raise their public awareness.
The Father’s Day weekend has featured political buzz — and outrage at least in some quarters on social media — over a “greeting” video sponsored by current Public Works Secretary Mark Villar. It’s widely understood to be the opening salvo in his quest for elected office.
Some eagle-eyed observers pointed out its content seems recycled from an old campaign ad — thus answering on question some observers, familiar with scuttlebutt that the Villar patriarch, Manuel, is unwell, supposedly due to Alzheimer’s.
The younger Villar for anything more than the Senate at this point seems a stretch; but it ties in with the calendar in terms of getting names and faces out there for a post-administration future.
Additional Readings Department
Someone who enjoyed reading Rizal in the original Spanish once told me Guerrero best captured the satirical humor of Rizal which is often lost in hyper-literal, over-worshipful translations of his works. I wonder how Richard Grant will handle prouncing Filipino and Spanish words.
Thank you!
My podcast is available on Anchor, on Spotify, and Apple Podcasts and Google Podcasts as well as other outlets.
Manolo Quezon is #TheExplainer Podcast • A podcast on Anchor — anchor.fm
What was my show on ANC from 2006–10 and again 2016–18 is now a home-grown podcast. Back then, as now, I felt it was important to explain why issues are issues. A dive into not only the topics of the day, but topics that come back from time to time. Join me for conversations or reveries on topics of the moment, or things, trends, even places, I’d like to talk to you about.
Thank you to those who are contributing to Patreon and thus helping provide the resources required to keep producing this newsletter and podcast.
Consul: Abigail Salta
Praetors: Carlos v. Jugo, Ramon Rufino, Arbet Bernardo
Aediles: Jeric Peña, Steven Rood, Joseph Planta, Willi
Their support enables me to devote the time and effort for this newsletter and my podcast. Thank you!
Manolo Quezon is #TheExplainer is creating Historical and political thinking, writing, and broadcasting. | Patreon — www.patreon.com
Become a patron of Manolo Quezon is #TheExplainer today: Get access to exclusive content and experiences on the world’s largest membership platform for artists and creators.
