Manolo Quezon is #TheExplainer Newsletter — The Morning After
Initial thoughts written late last night with a few thoughts from this morning.
When the polls closed, the real story, I said online, more than the numbers coming in, is the number of people stubbornly still at the precincts, waiting to cast their votes, for whichever candidate. And the poll watchers being deployed even as the numbers add up.
As the numbers began to trickle in, I started to share my thoughts.
We should remember, even before 1st vote was cast, 10% minimum of all candidates already won. Consider the edge this gave, since every unopposed candidate actually represents a coalition of factions that colluded to enable an uncontested election, to those who sought them out: the Marcoses.
Tonight we found out which of 2 possibilities for 2022 ended up true: that is, whether, as all the reputable surveys said, the campaign was a no-contest since November 2021, or whether there would be a new way to estimate support, such as Google search results.
As the numbers started to come in, I Tweeted a reminder that it’s the percentage of the total that will matter. Every election has a bigger electorate. So the only way to compare mandates, is by the percentages obtained. Note the last unquestioned majority presidency we had, was 1965 for a 1st term and 1969 for 2nd.
My personal benchmark is when the total VOTES reaches 53,954,092 because that would represent 80% of 67.44 million registered voters: a reasonably high turnout considering everyone’s expectations turnout was high this time. Or: the moment a candidate GETS 26,977,046 which would be 50% of the voters.
The historical context for 1st term mandates:
1953 Ramon Magsaysay 68.90%
1935 Manuel L. Quezon 67.99%
1961 Diosdado Macapagal 55.05%
1946 Manuel Roxas 53.93%
1965 Ferdinand Marcos 51.94%
1949 Elpidio Quirino 50.93%
By 11 PM I was hearing fireworks in Mandaluyong. Before midnight, it was clear Ferdinand Marcos Jr. would surely obtain if not 26 million, then close to it. As it turned out (as of May 10 morning), Robredo regained at the end, what she had in 2016: 14.4 million; she reassembled the Center. But Marcos has created a new majority of the Old and New.
The verdict of the 2022 election is that it was signed, sealed, and delivered, when Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo brokered the Marcos-Duterte Coalition by convincing Sara Duterte to wait her turn. From November, 2021 the surveys read it and reported it as it turned out to be.
The thing though, isn’t that Leni Robredo may not even get as much as she did in 2016, or that her percentage may not match the 35.11% she got then. Wrong perspective: it’s the numbers from 2016–2022 that matter.
To my mind, her victory in 2016 was the dying gasp of the world of 1986–2016. After 2021 she alone came to head the center; and her numbers doubled in a year. What was born in 2022 is a new coalition: this has 30 years ahead of it.
A historic election is done: there is now a Marcos Restoration. This puts us in the tragic company of the French and others who vomited out dictators only to elect their heirs.
Sa mga millenial at GenZ na bumoto at nagluluksa ngayon: ang 2022 ay hindi ang inyong 1986. Ang 2022 ang inyong 1978, o kaya, 1981.
Tanungin niyo sa mga magulang o lolo at lola niyo kung ano ang ibig kong sabihin.
Natutunan niyo ang ibig sabihin ng “Laban!” Laban na ninyo ito.
What follows is a wrap-up thread, a last look back, in eight parts, before we move forward.
1. Since a Restoration happened, let’s understand the similarities –and differences– of the Patriarch and the Son.
2. Other history was made by this election, including this being the first post-media election. What this means and why it matters, is here.
3. What we focused on the most, is the presidency. What it represents, the powers and potential, the pitfalls and perils it contains, is here:4. I have long argued the world we somehow still think exists, actually came to an end in 2016. 2022 proves it’s here to stay. What that is and how it came to be, is the story of the Rise and Fall of our Fifth Republic.
5. The Mitings de Avance were about two different cultures expressing themselves; they are fundamental differences that won’t go away.
6. Music moved us –and will continue to do so. And that says a lot about us.
7. Pictures moved us –and will continue to do so. And that will probably be permanently imprinted on us.
8. And words moved us. And they will stay with us, and in becoming internalized, inspire new expressions.
Finally, all of us are used to revivals. A Restoration is a Revival, but all revivals end up fad. Something else was born, and it’s new: so it will still grow. Watch the last two videos linked to in this entry. Study them, as I suggest in the entry.
Meanwhile, for now grapevine says the following Cabinet plums have been handed out: Marcoleta for DOJ; Al Tengco for DPWH; Wassmer for DOF. Let’s see which ones pan out.
But I end this thread where I began. The real story are the many ordinary people who stayed in line for hours simply to try to vote. They will not forget what was done to them on May 9, 2022.
I am not convinced wholesale cheating was even necessary. I am more inclined to think incompetence can explain much of yesterday’s voting experience. But this incompetence has cast a permanent shadow of anger and resentment on the Marcos Restoration.